This looks like it might be worth watching
https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_N0hcUzyCQFGn53sgW61Glg#/registration
Can’t tell who posted this because I’m seeing it on Discourse, however I can vouch for it being a legitimate link and not spam or phishing.
For those not familiar with it, PredictWind is a New Zealand-based weather app service which which offers web-based, Apple, and Android versions of their wind/current/seas prediction maps and tables.
It’s my go-to app for weather, along with Windfinder (another useful app, although targeted more toward surfers). I use PredictWind for planning ahead, and Windfinder for checking most recent local observations just before going out.
– Bob
Me Gusta
Nonsuch e26U #233
Marina del Rey, California
Just finished an excellent basic tutorial on understanding the factors that go into coastal weather models at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XSEXjeiIZY
It was put on by PredictWind, my personal pet weather app. PredictWind was a spin-off of Team Alinghi, the 2007 America’s Cup winners.
You can always just rely on what your favorite weather app says, but this was a really good basic presentation if you’re interested in the factors that go into it, the interactions that affect accuracy, or just what the weather forecasters are talking about when they explain it.
They have particularly good sections on what you can observe on the water to get hints, and phenomena that are hard to observe but you can figure out are there.
– Bob
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Bob Neches
Thanks for recording the class. I had intended on watching it and I was registered unfortunately and urgent meeting came up and I had to miss it. Not anymore. Now I can watch it.
Brian Cayer
Brian,
Can’t take credit for recording it – all I did was post the link they sent me.
Another link from them, Marine Meteorology Course | PredictWind Help Center , points to a six-part written tutorial covering:
- Marine Meteorology 1: Weather Models
- Marine Meteorology 2: Wind
- Marine Meteorology 3: Clouds
- Marine Meteorology 4: Sea Breeze
- Marine Meteorology 5: Mid-latitude Weather
- Marine Meteorology 6: Satellite & Radar imagery
PredictWind supports 6-8 different weather models. They have two of their own which they recommend for North American users: PWE and PWG.
Over the last month, in my sailing grounds, those two models have had mean errors of less than 1.4 kts plus or minus for wind speed and about 10 degrees for wind direction.
Pretty good, IMHO.
– Bob
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Another pointer to the tutorials I mentioned back in July: Video Tutorials/Webinars | PredictWind Help Center
I’m currently watching a new one, which is talking about recently developed AI weather models as an alternative to the current weather prediction approaches. The current techniques use mathematical models that apply the physics of thermodynamics and fluid flow. The AI models, in contrast, operate simply on comparing the current situation as described by weather data vs. what happened next in similar situations.
The speaker is doing a very good job of explaining all this in layman’s terms.
Caught this screengrab (sorry about the cursor blocking a bit of the view) contrasting the base:
NWP is the base physics-based approach that everyone offering weather predictions currently uses. AI is the general approach, e.g., that Google and others have applied to weather. The European weather center has adopted this, under the name AIFS (AI Forecasting System).
PredictWind’s own AI model PWAI is outperforming Google/ECWMF. It combines their AI and their mathematical models.
What I like about these guys (and why I use their app) is that they’re very good at actually testing and evaluating different weather techniques. Rather than pushing one, they emphasize when it’s best to use one vs. the other.
Bottom line is that the AI models are currently looking strongest for long range trip planning, while not quite there yet for coastal cruising.
This will be interesting to watch for future developments. In the meantime, my takeway was: use a real weather service for your sailing. Google’s fine if you’re on land and can run home for an umbrella when they goof, but for sailing stick with the pros.
– Bob